Directional Analysis

Quick Video Update on last week’s Market Analysis (05-14-12)

Edgar — Mon, 14 May 2012 19:13:07 +0000

This is just a quick video update of the Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern I am following on the S&P500 Futures. So far last week the S&P broke the neck line and did a little consolidation and some of a back test. Today, the S&P has already taken out he lows of last week and also the 23% retracement acting as support. I do for see more selling and my target is looking like it will hit sooner than I thought, but we will not get there until we do. So, let’s just be patient and watch the technical analysis do its thing.

New Bearish Pattern Taking This Market Much Lower (05-06-12)

Edgar — Mon, 07 May 2012 03:46:03 +0000

So far in the overnight trading the Markets are gapping lower, after breaking the neck line of a Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern. Technical Analysis had shown a Bearish Rising Wedge a few weeks ago, but now with this latest pattern development we can actually pin point the target much better. We may see a little bounce on Monday or Tuesday of this week, but this pattern has a high rate of probability once it’s confirmed. Also, we can see the target coincide with other technical indicators. Watch this video and see where the target takes this broken Market.

Directional Analysis Using the S&P500 Cash Index (04-24-12)

Edgar — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 05:08:41 +0000

All we have done so far is a bearish wedge, which broke down today. From the analysis it’s looking like the market could be heading to a much lower level, but since there are so many more companies yet to report, that will remain to be seen. The bottom line, the risk is still to the down side and the technicals are still not showing any kind of positive convergence to deduce any difference.

Week ended with a Bearish Engulfing Pattern (04-06-12)

Edgar — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 19:06:10 +0000

After today’s weekly Job’s report, the Futures for the markets tanked. This is a very sneaky way to have a sell off, but since I have been talking about how the markets have been over extended for weeks this should not come as a surprise. The technical tools have been giving warning flag after warning flag that this was coming. For example on the video I posted yesterday intraday, I was pointing out how the bounce was a superficial bounce. Meaning, even though the indices were showing higher prices the distribution volume and the ratio of companies on the red were not indicative of the green showed in the Indices. Bottom line, Technical Analysis has once again proven its relevance as a must have skill. Let’s see how we start the week next week after opening the water gates when no one was looking. Have a great Easter everyone and until next time.

Market Directional Analysis (04-05-12)

Edgar — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 18:18:16 +0000

Yesterday was an interesting move of the markets technically speaking, because most of them broke the uptrend channel they have held for so long! Today, we have seen a bit of a pause in the selling but also the volume has been quite light. This could mean many money managers do not want to take the risk on the long weekend therefore the money is staying on the sidelines. The main point I wanted to emphasize is that the technical tools are screaming warning signs that direction may be changing, at least for the shorter term. This is an intraday view of the markets and like we all know the last hour is the most important hour of the market, so we will have to see how the markets close. I do have a forward bias of the direction of this market, but only because of what the Technical Analysis is showing me!

Intraday Market Update Using ETF’s (03-29-12)

Edgar — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 15:47:35 +0000

In this Intraday Market Update I am focusing again on the technical analysis is a great skill to have. Because with this type of analysis we have been able to see how the trend has been changing for the past few weeks. A Negative Divergence between some of the technical oscillators and simple Trend lines have been the emphasis of the analysis and now we are starting to see how they were giving us some signals. Although this is an intraday update and everything could change by the close, I wanted to make this update because of some of the concerning signals I am seeing in my analysis. Moments like this are key to learn how Technical Analysis does really work.

Market Update Using ETFs “Very Important Prediction” (03-28-12)

Edgar — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 13:42:10 +0000

I recorded this video update late last night, but I wanted to see how the futures acted this morning to give me a bit more of confirmation of my analysis. So now that they have, here it is!

This Market Update I stay with the theme of using the ETF’s (SPY’s for the S&P 500, the QQQ for the Nasdaq 100, and the IWM for the Russell 2000 or small caps) to give you all a picture of what has been going on since the last update.

The slow crawl to the upside is indicative of a Bull Market, but my argument is that the technicals are not looking so healthy. In other words, these last few weeks the market has been moving up but with a negative divergence in the internals.

The Window Dressing: this week is the end of the fiscal quarter and one of the best quarters in quite some time. That means, many Money Managers buy some of the main equities (like Apple, Google, and Priceline) to make it seem like they were in the market all in the right places.

Here is the catch, since the market has gone up with no real pause, once the Companies start their reporting next week, much of the smart money who have been in from the beginning of this rally will start taking profits. This in return will cause the Money Mangers to return the stocks they used for “window dressing” and just add to the correction many people have been waiting for.

The Bottom Line, technical analysis is showing there is a correction coming and may have already begun.

Market Update through the eyes of ETF’s Follow Up (03-07-12)

Edgar — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 22:56:35 +0000

In this Video, I am sticking with the ETFs which I used in the previous update for the sake of uniformity. Yesterday’s down day did some technical damage and had relatively high volume. The high volume is indicative of distribution, meaning there was Institution selling. Now today on the other hand, there was buying with contracting volume which indicates that the move lower might not be done yet. In the video I show what I am looking for in my analysis to determine where this market could head down to. Don’t give me wrong, I am still in the camp that the market will go higher because of the longer term technical analysis, but nothing will go up forever and this market was due for a healthy pull back. Until next time….

Market Update through the Eyes of ETF’s (03-01-12)

Edgar — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 13:24:13 +0000

The first thing I would like to say is that an increase of volatility does not change trends of direction. Have said that, the market has gone straight up and it could have a %5 pull back without even taking out longer term uptrend lines. In this video, I use the ETF’s which follow the major indices excluding the Dow Jones (because its only 30 companies compare to the S&P500 which is 500 companies) to show where the market’s direction is after yesterday’s down day. Technically nothing is broken yet and we could go even lower without changing the trend, this is where the technical instruments I use help take the emotions out and keep the analysis more objective. Until next time.

Quick Intra-day Update on what pattern the market is in (02-24-12)

Edgar — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 20:05:35 +0000

This is a quick video to show you what has been going on since the over night trading in the S&P500 Futures. The pattern this Index is in, is a crazy pattern because it keeps making higher highs and lower lows. This makes the traders in the pits keep reversing their positions and it only feeds on itself until it resolve either way. Now from what I see in the US dollar index and the commodities I still believe the market will continue to higher levels, but because of this pattern we may not see that until early next week. I will make a video Update the soonest I see a confirmation of the direction. Until then, have a great weekend everyone.